IVF Calculators – do they help to understand IVF success rates?

IVF success rates calculators
– can I check what chance I have to get pregnant after IVF??

When talking about the chance of pregnancy, we mean IVF treatment statistics. Consider for a moment what kind of statistics would be the best from the patient’s point of view?

Of course, the percentage of live births per IVF cycles started and of course in connection with the woman’s age. Ideally, such statistics should be presented taking into account the causes of infertility of the patient, that is, a separate statistic for each of the causes of infertility.
In this case, you can probably estimate in which group you are and what your stats are in terms of your chances of getting pregnant, and at best, the birth of a child.

Of course, it is worth asking the clinic in which you are going to be treated, about their experiences and successes in treating patients similar to you – at least in terms of age, causes of infertility and medical history. Not many Clinics can answer such a question. Usually statistics will be based only on the age of the woman.

Nevertheless, we have good news for you! There are many online tools on the market that allow you to statistically calculate your chances of pregnancy after IVF, and actually, or even better, of giving birth of a child after IVF. Each of them is based on other data and another methodology. You should remember that these are statistical methods and should only be treated as a guide.

Is it worth using IVF success rates Calculators online?

Sure it’s worth it. After all, as a patient you are looking for a clinic and probably one of the most important information that you are guided by in its choice is the IVF success rate. You probably already know that most clinics limit information about treatment success rate to the so-called pregnancy rates, therefore a clinical pregnancy (usually 6-8 weeks) per embryo transfer. In the case of statistical models, you will receive information about real opportunities not for pregnancy but for the birth of a child. Actually, what percentage of patients who were in a similar medical situation to you ended IVF treatment successfully?

Using on-line statistical models, you can verify how much – statistically – the clinic deviates in its presentation from tools that operate on very large data – at least 100,000 IVF cycles. Remember that the size of the data on which the statistics are based is of key importance. In short, the more data about IVF cycles, the more accurate the statistics and the closest to the truth. Why is that? Imagine the situation that the IVF Clinic gives you statistics for selected IVF parameters and it equals 50%. The question is, what was the size of the sample on which it was calculated? What if the clinic had 10 such patients and 5 became pregnant? With each subsequent patient, such statistics – up to a certain point (of a given sample size) can change significantly both down and up. That is why the appropriate group on which the statistics are prepared is so important.

IVF Success Calculators – let’s test them out

SART PREDICTOR

A great tool for patients, where in a way which is statistically very close to real life, you can estimate the likelihood of getting pregnant and giving birth to a child. The calculator also shows the cumulative success rate for 2 and 3 IVF cycles.

Furthermore, you will also find information about the risk of getting pregnant with a multiple pregnancy. Predictor was developed by SART (Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology) in the US based on approximately 500,000 IVF cycles, which since 2006, were taken by over 320,000 women, based on data from over 80% of IVF Clinics in the US. With such a large statistical group the results will certainly be close to reality. IVF clinics in the US offer very good quality of therapy, high success rates and access to modern therapeutic methods.

This is what SART writes about its model:

“While more models are coming soon, this model includes sequential transfers of fresh embryos only, no frozen transfers. ”

What is worth noting in contrast to other models is that SART PREDICTOR takes into account BMI (BMI may be of significant importance in the treatment of infertility), which is calculated automatically based on height and weight.

Website: https://www.sartcorsonline.com/predictor/patient

IVFPREDICT

IVFPREDICT seems more complicated than the SART PREDICTOR, but the information we obtain as a result is limited to information about the statistical chance of giving birth to a child with the help of IVF.

An interesting fact here is the use/inclusion in the methodology of a group of stimulation drugs to choose from (Gonadothropin/Antiestrogen/Hormone replacement) and information whether the ICSI procedure will be performed.

The model has been developed based on over 140,000 cycles performed in the UK. The model was prepared by Prof. Scott Nelson – University of Glasgow, Prof. Debbie Lawlor – Bristol University and Dr. Tom Kelsey – University of Saint Andrews.

Website: http://www.ivfpredict.com/index-1.html

OPIS IVF PREDICTOR

Another online tool that allows you to check your chances is OPIS (Outcome Prediction In Subfertility).

The system is built differently than the previous two because in the first place, patients must choose whether they had IVF before or whether they are interested in the statistics of the subsequent IVF cycles. OPIS was based on HFEA data from the UK involving IVF cycles in 1999 – 2009.

We did not find information on how many cycles the statistical model implemented by the University of Aberdeen works. However, looking at the age range, it is certainly more than 100,000 IVF cycles. In this model, the causes of infertility are limited to a few options (unexplained fertility/problem with tubes/male factor). The number of parameters to enter also seems quite poor compared to previous tools. As a result, we get a graph that shows the average effectiveness (live birth) in 6 IVF cycles per cycle.

Website: https://w3.abdn.ac.uk/clsm/opis/home/toolintro

Testing IVF Calculators & prediction models

In each tool we tried to choose similar parameters in the patient’s medical history:

  • Woman’s age: 37 years old,
  • no IVF treatment in the past
  • no past pregnancy
  • attempt duration 2 years,
  • cause of infertility – endometriosis
  • of course, the IVF program with own eggs.

We received different results as the prediction of the success rate (we have to emphasize that OPIS PREDICTOR did not include an option for selecting infertility reasons):

SART PREDICTOR – IVF success results:

In this tool we have received very detailed data on the expected treatment success rate. In addition to the standard calculation of one IVF cycle, we receive information on the 2nd and 3rd cycle of IVF and the IVF success rate and the risk of multiple pregnancy depending on the number of transferred embryos.

  • Probability of live birth after one cycle is 32%
  • Probability of live birth after two cycles is 50%
  • Probability of live birth after three cycles is 62%
SART IVF PREDICTOR - results

Results based on SART IVF Predictor

One Cycle with One embryo:

  • Probability of live birth is 31%
  • Risk of multiple pregnancy is 1%

Two Cycles with One embryo:

  • Probability of live birth is 46%
  • Risk of multiple pregnancy is 2%

One Cycle with Two embryos:

  • Probability of live birth is 43%
  • Risk of multiple pregnancy is 28%
SART IVF PREDICTOR - results

Results based on SART IVF PREDICTOR

IVFPredict – IVF success results

The only information that IVFPredict provides is:

“Your chance of a live birth per IVF attempt is: 28.5%”

IVFPredict results

Results based on IVFPredict

OPIS – IVF success results

The only information provided by OPIS was:
“Your chance of having your first baby after 1 complete cycle of treatment is: 36.96%.”

OPIS IVF Calculator results

OPIS IVF Calculator results

Conclusion:

As you can see, the results of individual tools and the amount of received information differ significantly.

In our opinion, SART PREDICTOR is a tool that every patient should start when joining the IVF program regardless of whether it is the first IVF cycle or the next. The tool gives you great possibilities when it comes to input parameters. As a result you get very accurate data, which will certainly be useful for you.

Using this type of tools can also help you plan your treatment budget. It is easier to realistically plan the costs when you know how statistically your chances of having a live birth look after the first IVF cycle and, for example, after 3 cycles.

There are more online tools that can estimate the chances of IVF pregnancies, but the above three have very strong scientific support supported by research and scientific publications. What is important, they use data collected on the basis of at least 100,000 IVF cycles of patients and in the case of SART PREDICTOR approximately 500,000 IVF cycles.

If you know the online tool that is used to estimate the chances of IVF pregnancies that are not on our list and you think you should be included, contact us and maybe we will include them in our comparison.

Resources

Predicting the chances of a live birth after one or more complete cycles of in vitro fertilisation: population based study of linked cycle data from 113 873 women, https://www.bmj.com/content/355/bmj.i5735

Predicting Live Birth, Preterm Delivery, and Low Birth Weight in Infants Born from In Vitro Fertilisation: A Prospective Study of 144,018 Treatment Cycles, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000386

Predicting the success of IVF: external validation of the van Loendersloot’s model., https://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/dew069

SART IVF Predictor – https://www.sartcorsonline.com

HFEA – https://www.hfea.gov.uk/

 

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